SpaceX Falcon 9 to crash into Moon at 5,400 mph Wednesday

A spent SpaceX Falcon 9 upper stage will crash into the Moon on August 5, 2026, and the collision could throw up a debris plume visible from Earth through telescopes.

The impact, expected near the Einstein crater on the sunlit western limb at 6:34 UTC, would mark the first recorded impact flash on the sunlit lunar face, according to two preprint studies.

One study, led by William Jo of the University of Texas at Austin, was posted on arXiv on July 27, 2026. Jo’s simulation models the hollow 3,900-kilogram stage, which differs from solid meteorite strikes.

David Goldstein, a UT Austin aerospace-engineering professor who supervised the work, likens the stage to “an empty eggshell” with a denser engine at one end.

The simulation predicts the shell will collapse inward, throwing up a broad curtain of soil up to 183 kilometers wide and a thin, faster spike nearly straight up, displacing about 12,700 kilograms of debris.

However, Jo cautions that the model assumes a vertical, engine-first impact. The real stage, which carried two landers to the Moon in January 2025, will probably strike at an angle, producing a smaller, dimmer plume.

Goldstein calls the study “the most optimistic in terms of generating sprays.”

Astronomer Laurence Trafton of UT Austin says a plume reaching 50 kilometers past the limb would span about 28 arcseconds—easily resolved by a small telescope—but visibility depends on contrast. The plume may be 30 to 300 times fainter than the Moon, and scattered moonlight could hinder viewing, requiring “a very steady mount,” he adds.

The plume should peak about 90 seconds after impact. For observers north of a line from Massachusetts to Texas, the low Moon means peering through over three times the usual atmospheric thickness, likely washing out the plume. The best viewing odds are in the US Southeast, according to Trafton.

Scientists, including Bill Gray of Project Pluto who first flagged the impact, have urged astronomers to observe the event.

The crash offers a chance to study lunar impacts and prepare for future exploration. NASA’s 1999 Lunar Prospector probe found no water, but a 2009 mission detected water ice in a plume. A 2022 lunar impact, initially thought to be a Falcon 9, was later identified as a Chinese booster.

This unplanned collision could reveal how spent hardware affects the Moon, as NASA and China plan crewed missions and bases.

Jo warns that ejected particles at 300 to 400 meters per second, combined with abrasive moon rock, could endanger astronauts. Goldstein emphasizes dust control as a major challenge, recalling Apollo astronauts covered in dirt.

Observers are advised to set alarms for the early hours of August 5, aim telescopes at the Moon’s bright edge, and hope for clear skies.