Shein wins China IPO nod after 3-year delay, faces $30B valuation cut

Shein received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission for a Hong Kong listing early in July 2026, after failing to go public in New York and London. The fast-fashion retailer's filing on Sunday, July 26, 2026, revealed slowing growth and mounting pressures, leading investors to question whether it can sustain a valuation above $40 billion.

The company's revenue grew 8% to $41.8 billion in 2025, a sharp deceleration from 20.7% growth the previous year. In the first quarter of 2026, Shein swung to a $99 million loss after the U.S. removed an import-duty exemption on small packages and the company took a large one-time accounting charge.

Investors and analysts say Shein missed the optimal moment to go public. William Ma, chief investment officer at GROW Investment Group, stated the company "has missed the golden time to list," while Shaun Rein, managing director at China Market Research Group, noted that consumers and investors are no longer as excited about the retailer. According to Bloomberg, Shein is under pressure to reduce its valuation to $30 billion, down from nearly $100 billion in a 2022 fundraising round and below the $64 billion of 2024.

Even at $30 billion, Ma argued the valuation is demanding, representing roughly 19 to 25 times fiscal 2025 earnings, compared to peers like PDD trading at 9 times and established Hong Kong consumer names at around 11. Lenny Zephirin, principal and analyst at The Zephirin Group, expects the post-listing market capitalization to settle in the high-$20 billion to low-$30 billion range, as the company transitions from a high-growth, technology-enabled platform to a mature global apparel retailer with structurally slower growth and sustained margin pressure.

Founded in Nanjing, Shein moved its headquarters to Singapore in 2022 and pursued Western exchanges, but Beijing blocked its London prospectus over risk disclosures related to its China supply chain. In February 2026, founder Sky Xu made his first public appearance, pledging to "continue to take root in Guangdong" and committing more than 10 billion yuan ($1.4 billion) to a smart supply chain system there. The Hong Kong market has also shifted, with Zephirin noting that appetite for AI, semiconductor, and cloud infrastructure listings has replaced interest in Shein.

Shein disclosed on Tuesday, July 28, 2026, that its U.S. business is under investigation by the Federal Trade Commission for unspecified reasons and could face significant fines. Sales data show its U.S. apparel, accessories, and footwear spending share peaked at about 5% in the first quarter of 2025, turned negative year over year by the fourth quarter, and continued to decline in 2026, according to Michael Gunther, an analyst at Consumer Edge. In the U.K., where Shein holds a record 7.5% share, year-over-year share gains slowed to essentially zero. Gunther noted that share losses are steepest among 18-to-34-year-olds, while gains now come from shoppers over 55. Rivals like Temu have adapted by using local sellers, but analyst Juozas Kaziukenas said Shein cannot easily localize inventory because its model relies on shipping thousands of new designs on demand from China. Since the European Union imposed a 3-euro fee on low-value imports in July 2026, both companies have paused most advertising spending in Europe, a region that supplied about a third of Shein's revenue last year.