NASA Warns Solar Storms May Have No Upper Limit on Power

NASA scientists have warned that solar storms, particularly extreme events once thought to occur only once every thousand years, may be far more powerful and frequent than previously estimated. A new study from NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center suggests that there may be no upper limit to the intensity of geomagnetic storms triggered by solar activity, challenging long-held assumptions about the rarity and severity of such events.

The warning comes as researchers analyzed historical data and found that the most extreme solar storms—like the 1859 Carrington Event—could be dwarfed by even larger storms that occur on longer timescales. The study indicates that the probability of a Carrington-level event is higher than the 1-in-1,000-year figure often cited, and that storms an order of magnitude stronger could happen within the next century. This affects not only satellite operators and astronauts but also modern power grids, communication networks, and aviation systems, all of which are vulnerable to geomagnetic disturbances.

Why this matters is clear: a severe solar storm could cripple electrical infrastructure worldwide, causing blackouts lasting months, disrupting GPS and internet services, and costing trillions of dollars in damage. The study, published in the journal Space Weather, used statistical models to show that the distribution of solar storm intensities does not have a sharp cutoff, meaning extreme events are more likely than previously thought. The researchers examined 150 years of geomagnetic data and found that the largest storms—like the 1921 New York Railroad storm and the 1989 Quebec blackout—are part of a continuum, not outliers.

Background provided by the source notes that previous risk assessments often relied on limited historical records, which may underestimate the true potential. The new NASA study suggests that the sun’s magnetic field can generate storms far beyond any observed in modern history. Next steps include improving space weather forecasting and hardening critical infrastructure against extreme events. The authors urge policymakers to consider scenarios where solar storms exceed the Carrington Event, as the consequences could be catastrophic for a technology-dependent society.