OpenAI Sees $278B Cash Burn, $856B Compute Bill by 2030

OpenAI expects negative free cash flow of $278 billion between 2026 and the end of 2030, according to an internal presentation prepared in July and first reported by the Financial Times on 18 September. Reuters, relaying the FT's reporting, said the same materials project revenue rising from $36 billion this year to $350 billion in 2030 — roughly $840 billion cumulatively through the end of the decade — while computing power and infrastructure becomes the company's largest expense category at about $856 billion.

The document was drawn up for a major computing deal, which is what makes the figures comparable with earlier ones. The Next Web, also citing the FT, noted that OpenAI told investors in February its compute bill would be around $600 billion by 2030; the July number is roughly 43% higher. The site attached a caveat of its own: February's figure was described as "compute" and July's as "computing power and infrastructure," so part of the gap may be definitional rather than real.

The cash-burn line moved in the opposite direction. An earlier projection in May put negative free cash flow for the same period at about $305 billion, so the July figure is roughly $27 billion better. Spending can climb while burn falls when partners carry the build, and The Next Web pointed to three examples: Nvidia's talks to guarantee $250 billion of data-centre debt, Oracle's data-centre capital spending landing on Oracle's own accounts, and SB Energy accepting $5.5 billion in OpenAI warrants to sign a 20-year lease — an equity payment rather than a cash one.

That distinction is the reason the numbers matter beyond OpenAI. Free cash flow measures money leaving one company; it does not measure obligations created across a chain of suppliers, landlords and lenders. So a $856 billion build and a $278 billion burn can sit in the same document, with the difference carried by somebody else's balance sheet. The figures also land while OpenAI is in early talks with investors that could value it at about $1.2 trillion ahead of a potential listing, Reuters reported. The company filed confidentially for an IPO in June, but chief executive Sam Altman has said it will not go public in 2026, citing concerns about AI safety.

What remains unknown is whether any of this survives contact with audited accounts. These are projections in a document written to win a deal, and they have been revised at least twice this year. The revenue assumption — close to a tenfold increase in four years — is the one every other figure depends on, because the burn is simply what is left after revenue is subtracted from spending. Reuters said OpenAI could not be reached for comment outside business hours, and the company has not publicly confirmed the presentation's contents.

This article is for information only and is not investment advice.

Disclosure: NewUJ's editorial process uses Anthropic's Claude models.