SpaceX Falcon 9 stage to crash into moon at 5,400 mph

A spent SpaceX Falcon 9 upper stage will crash into the moon on August 3, 2026. The four-metric-ton rocket body will hit at about 5,400 mph, triggering an explosion equal to three metric tons of TNT. The impact is expected to leave a crater up to 27 meters wide and 5 meters deep.

The collision will occur at approximately 6:34 UTC on August 3 near Einstein Crater on the moon’s western near side. Observers in the Americas with telescopes may glimpse the debris plume for a few minutes.

Originally, the upper stage was abandoned after it successfully delivered two lunar landers, lacking enough fuel to return to Earth or enter a stable orbit.

Bill Gray of Project Pluto first calculated the rocket’s trajectory. A preprint study released in July 2026 detailed the collision.

This crash spotlights the growing hazard from space debris to planned lunar bases. China and the United States are pushing to build surface habitats under NASA’s Artemis program.

“These sorts of things are going to happen more and more often,” said Benjamin Fernando, a researcher at Los Alamos National Laboratory and study co-author. “We need to understand how much of a risk these impact events actually pose.” He added that studying the August 3 event will help gauge dangers from direct hits, blinding light flashes, and clouds of ejected material.