Microsoft to report Q4 earnings with $191.2B capex forecast in focus

Microsoft is set to report fiscal fourth-quarter results after the close of trading on July 29, with investors closely watching its spending plans amid concerns over artificial intelligence disruption.

Analysts polled by LSEG expect revenue to rise 14.6% year over year for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, accelerating to 15.4% growth in the September quarter.

As of the close on July 28, Microsoft shares have fallen about 19% in 2026, compared with an 8.5% gain for the S&P 500.

Capital expenditure and finance lease forecasts from Visible Alpha analysts stand at $191.2 billion, exceeding the $190 billion guidance Microsoft provided in April 2026. The heightened expectations come after Alphabet raised its own 2026 spending range by $15 billion.

Deutsche Bank analysts warned of "some concentration risk" from Microsoft's OpenAI relationship, citing the company's January 2026 disclosure that roughly 45% of its $625 billion in commercial remaining performance obligations were tied to OpenAI.

CEO Satya Nadella has been balancing computing capacity allocation across Azure cloud services, research, and applications such as the Microsoft 365 Copilot assistant. Analysts polled by CNBC and StreetAccount expect Azure growth at constant currency of 40% and 40.2%, respectively.

During the quarter, Microsoft introduced a cost-efficient AI coding model, named Dan Shapero to lead LinkedIn, and lowered Xbox Game Pass subscription prices.

Executives will discuss the results and issue guidance on a conference call starting at 5:30 p.m. ET on July 29.